
The surge in metal prices has renewed speculation about a mining peak, a view that fails to reflect the industry’s structural realities. Two strong years do not reverse decades of neglect. In our view, what we have seen is a wake-up call, not a market top. Mining is defined by long development timelines, rigid supply growth, and capital cycles that unfold over decades, not quarters. The forces behind today’s repricing — prolonged underinvestment, constrained supply, and rising structural demand — remain intact and unresolved.
This may be one of the most important charts in the current macro environment.
Fascinating chart.
And there go Brazilian small caps….
A consequential night for Brazil.
This is just a short note to share that I am launching a mining-focused fund.
Wild. US and China’s combined money supply is surging almost as fast as it did during the Covid stimulus madness.
The lag in silver prices is becoming one of the market’s most compelling divergences.
Latin America is likely experiencing a major turning point in market leadership.
Washington has a strong dollar, high interest rates, and an unmanageable debt-service burden.
Still one of the most important macro divergences in markets today.
Miners have never been this cheap relative to tech on a free cash flow yield basis.
Yet there is no AI revolution without metals.
Inflation expectations are on the verge of a major breakout.
Markets underestimate how strongly today’s macro imbalances will push policymakers toward more inflation.
This will define the next decade and write a new chapter in monetary history.
Silver miners are now producing four times more free cash flow than they did at their last peak. More important data about the industry here: FULL REPORT
The US dollar is approaching one of its most consequential technical tests in years.
A break below this support could mark the beginning of a much broader decline.
If I had to choose one market move that could define the next few years… this would be it.
